Very important, this is the basis of everything. Of course, you know that a favorite with odds of 1.20 is definitely going to win, but does that mean that odds are valuable? Not necessarily.
Quite often you will hear a bettor say, “There is no way this team will lose this game”. To tell the truth it would just be legitimate for a favorite to win, but is the probability that this team will win higher than the odds offered? Playing with this mindset can be dangerous! It’s like saying that a state-of-the-art flatscreen TV is a great deal even if it’s overpriced, just because you really want it. It doesn’t work that way with betting. Alas!
The Right value for the Gambling
Value is a concept that most bettors do not understand or take into account. Because the bettors do not pay attention to this detail, it is fortunate for the others who can have very good opportunities by studying this parameter.
- It depends on the popularity of an event, but in general, bookmaker odds are a reflection of the tendency of bettors more than the odds of an outcome. Obviously it’s not that simple but to put it simply, bookmakers offer odds according to the attractiveness of the public so that you are tempted to play for each team and in order to recover a commission.
- That said, smart bettors can find value in betting when other players are wrong. It also means that very good value can be found in a very popular event for casual bettors, who know little or nothing about experienced betting strategy. Events like the live22, cup finals or a popular horse race can be this kind of event.
As long as you play, you will love the Ugly Duckling more and more, this team that everyone hates, but you don’t! It is often good to bet on the team that is pointed out as being the worst. The more people go after a team, the more valuable that team is. For example if a team has had very good results but stays on a 4 or 5 losing streak, the public will generally look down on that team, and the value of that team will simply increase.